Tesla shares fell hard again on the first trading day of 2023.
On Jan. 3, Tesla shares plunged 15% intraday and closed down 12.24% at $108.1 per share, the biggest drop in more than two years and the lowest closing price since Aug. 13, 2020, with a market value of $341.4 billion, evaporating $47.7 billion overnight.
Just a day earlier, Tesla released a set of delivery numbers that fell short of expectations.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Tesla produced more than 439,700 vehicles worldwide and delivered more than 405,300 vehicles, a new delivery high, but still slightly below Wall Street's previous estimate of 429,000 deliveries. during the same period in 2021, Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles.
For the full year 2022, Tesla produced 1,369,600 vehicles worldwide and delivered 1,139,900 vehicles, the first time Tesla exceeded one million vehicles in global production and deliveries, of which more than 1.2 million were Model 3 and Y-Series. 2021 deliveries were 936,200 vehicles. 2022 deliveries were up more than 40% year-over-year, but The company failed to meet Wall Street's expectations and likewise failed to meet Tesla's previously set annual sales target of 1.5 million units.
The less-than-expected deliveries corroborate the market's biggest concern about Tesla - a lack of demand.
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a research note on Jan. 2 that Tesla is facing serious demand problems, "Tesla's annual order run rate was only about 1 million units in the fourth quarter, while the company aims to sell nearly 2 million units in 2023. We expect demand challenges to persist in 2023." He noted that no Tesla model currently qualifies for a U.S. Inflation Reduction Act rebate, except for the 7-seat Model Y.
Sacconaghi sees only two viable paths for Tesla, either lowering its growth targets and running its factory production below capacity, or maintaining or even expanding its price reduction promotions around the world, which in turn puts pressure on margins.
However, there are analysts who are bullish on Tesla's long-term potential and see the plunge as a buying opportunity.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs called Tesla's latest delivery figures "incremental negative" and said Tesla is "well positioned for long-term growth. Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating on the stock in a report on the 2nd, saying that in a challenging macroeconomic environment, car price reductions are "a key driver of growth.
Ben Kallo, an analyst at financial services firm Baird, also maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla and said he would continue to buy ahead of Tesla's earnings report (Jan. 25, local time).
In a report on the 3rd, he said, "Importantly, we expect production to grow at a rate of 20% per quarter through 2023 as capacity climbs at the Berlin and Austin plants."
Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the weakness in Tesla's stock price as a window to buy. "With a deteriorating macro backdrop, record high interest rates and increasing competition, all car companies face heavy hurdles in the year ahead," Morgan Stanley wrote in a report, "However, against this backdrop, we believe Tesla has the potential to extend its lead and leverage its cost and scale advantages to stand out."
It's worth noting that Tesla's stock price continues to plummet and there is not only the "culprit" of lack of demand, as Tesla's "soul man" Elon Musk's acquisition of the social media Twitter, being distracted by Twitter, and the review of Twitter content on the The Internet is also full of concerns for investors in Tesla, however, these issues have not been ruled out yet.
For the year 2022, Tesla's stock price has fallen 65% and its market value has evaporated $675 billion.
A few months ago, Wall Street generally expected Tesla to deliver more than 2 million units in 2023, according to the Wall Street Journal, analysts have now lowered their forecasts, believing that Tesla will deliver less than 2 million units in 2023. Deutsche Bank lowered its full-year Tesla delivery forecast to 1.84 million units, an annual increase of about 40 percent, which is below the average 50 percent growth target Tesla has been setting. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2023 Tesla delivery forecast to 1.8 million units.