According to Reuters, 12 battery experts familiar with Tesla said the secret behind Elon Musk's goal of reaching 20 million annual sales by 2030 lies in, "its groundbreaking battery technology. Cut the cost of the Tesla Model Y battery in half by then! A savings of $5,500, or 8% of the base model price. Mainly through the use of larger cells and a new dry film electrode process.
Of course, this goal has not yet been reached, according to the news, its research and development progress only to half.
Because Tesla's dry film technology for larger diameter 4680 cells is still unproven, it's difficult to scale up production to the point where significant cost savings can be realized.
"They're just not ready for mass production yet," said one expert close to Tesla.
Nonetheless, the gains Tesla has made in reducing battery production costs over the past two years have helped boost profits and extend its lead over the competition.
Elon Musk promised investors a new era in battery cost and performance: Tesla could sell $25,000 electric cars and make a profit, with the potential to meet its 2030 goal.
The battery system is the single most expensive component of most electric vehicles, so building low-cost, high-performance battery packs is the key to affordable EVs that can compete with fuel cars on price.
Tesla is one of the few major car companies that produces its own power cells. Under the new U.S. subsidy policy, Tesla will still be eligible for U.S. tax credits for relevant models by manufacturing batteries in U.S. factories, while many of its competitors' electric vehicles may no longer qualify.
Of the 12 battery experts interviewed by Reuters, nine are close to Tesla, and three of them have conducted comprehensive studies of Tesla's old and new battery technology through disassembly.
The sources predict that Tesla will have difficulty fully implementing the new dry film manufacturing process by the end of this year, possibly until 2023.
Stan Whittingham, co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery and 2019 Nobel laureate, believes Elon Musk is too optimistic about the time frame for commercializing the new technology.